Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 111.570589 127.828054 146.171213 168.507228 195.113174 225.967200 264.711458
2026-01-04 92.719696 114.022879 140.244768 175.297516 221.541158 281.337022 365.959244
2026-01-11 80.719541 104.525865 135.777727 180.630784 244.740696 335.288768 477.005433
2026-01-18 71.407335 96.269043 130.607359 182.797854 262.502391 383.834229 591.256311
2026-01-25 63.797376 88.893215 125.040392 182.694192 275.890303 427.406608 707.936751
2026-02-01 56.817791 81.338271 117.902975 178.630586 281.673527 459.074353 811.784032
2026-02-08 51.068811 74.840359 111.376054 174.262469 285.708739 487.869126 917.451911
2026-02-15 46.377578 69.397332 105.748421 170.375573 289.570756 516.594554 1030.616952
2026-02-22 45.027980 69.039163 108.181795 180.504158 320.473740 603.519415 1297.629439
2026-03-01 42.376624 66.255077 106.193227 182.341428 335.709179 661.898981 1518.890991
2026-03-08 40.139449 63.923612 104.683832 184.774933 352.444841 727.240639 1782.838167
2026-03-15 37.755411 61.106252 101.991632 184.511054 363.388809 781.848487 2039.607252
2026-03-22 36.987397 61.120281 104.563558 195.370827 401.503476 914.183041 2599.948358
2026-03-29 35.890143 60.439631 105.769654 203.643765 435.652375 1047.541300 3245.828254
2026-04-05 34.650400 59.371119 106.096877 210.073874 466.820520 1183.170878 3992.136056
2026-04-12 33.102995 57.578301 104.792616 212.683150 488.963353 1300.173519 4751.398216
2026-04-19 31.422443 55.382800 102.443999 212.560037 503.938805 1400.400812 5518.037984
2026-04-26 29.447953 52.456833 98.310173 207.681012 504.970177 1455.812188 6117.191888
2026-05-03 27.617945 49.680196 94.240450 202.440958 504.046485 1504.850733 6730.532144
2026-05-10 25.998229 47.206002 90.595059 197.782435 503.971742 1557.458170 7418.016472
2026-05-17 25.865142 47.729636 93.472166 209.930222 557.323087 1832.936046 9811.618643
2026-05-24 24.957146 46.583581 92.551294 212.136667 580.235008 1998.384638 11698.703940
2026-05-31 24.160539 45.610643 91.928632 215.060495 606.313181 2189.963293 14098.643308